Good pig market this year, "after" four words, says the current farmers across the country, but the domestic pig industry is still a lot of problem. Every market, retail investors will influx, leading to excess production capacity rapidly. Because our country pig breeding scale, intensive, automation level is low, domestic prices significantly higher than the international market for a long time, pork imports will also impact the domestic market --
"Each such a 250 jins of pigs, netted $700. Losing money for several years in a row, now no sweet without sweat." On August 2, hubei qichun LiuHe Town vibration dragon industrial company chairman Hu Jizhen said on economic daily news.
480 the ministry of agriculture animal husbandry department of the national market, according to monitoring data of the last week of July, the pig and the average price of 17.51 yuan, 26.76 yuan per kilogram of pork, for 19 weeks and 18 weeks rose respectively, have gained up to 44% and 44% respectively.
Prices are restorative rise
Over the past three years, the domestic prices remain low, in March of last year, after a large production, retail, reduced supply, prices rise in restorative
This year the pig city is good. On the one hand, prices rise, on the other hand is a feed prices.
As is known to all, for the most part of the cost of pig feed. As a main composition of pig feed corn, soybean meal, price of recent years has been sluggish.
Hu Jizhen company the amount of 5000 pigs, monthly output 1000 head, light feed money every day is a significant cost. "Last year in July, feed corn purchase price 2860 yuan per ton, soybean meal purchase price 3800 yuan, now corn as long as 2720 yuan, soybean meal only 2870 yuan." Open books than, Hu Jizhen found that feed prices, hard to save a large sum of money for him.
Industry will than pig food (pork) against the main feed corn as an important reference for evaluation of pork price is reasonable: 6:1 is the balance point, below this point loss, higher than this point for a profit. In July, according to data from the ministry of agriculture last week, the national pig grain ratio was 7.09:1. Farmers are quite profitable.
"Rising prices of restorative. The ministry of agriculture as a director, said.
Saying is restorative, because prices remain low for the past three years, the industry long-term severe losses.
"Have 15 swine, last year the market had never seen anything like that. Pigs per kg, the cost to 12.8 yuan, the price is 9.6 yuan. Every such pigs, to a net loss of 320 yuan." Hu Jizhen said.
The ministry of agriculture, according to the monitoring data since February 2012, prices fell into the cycle. By March 2014, the pig food than below 5:1 heavy losses.
Prices sharply lower production cost, which leads to the farmers to slash breeding stock. The national bureau of statistics latest data show that, in the first half of this year, the national pork production 25.74 million tons, down 4.9% year-on-year. Hu Jizhen has more than 10000 pigs originally, by the beginning of June this year only 5000 animals left. "LiuHe Town used amount of pig farmers have dozens, hundreds of head by the end of last year, almost completely shut out of the race."
"The rise in prices is different from before. The last two rising cycle, and slightly increased consumption of pork supply decline; the rise in prices is caused by pork supply fell above consumption drop." Market early warning analysts, the agricultural information institute, Chinese academy of agricultural sciences international intelligence research office of the deputy researcher zeng-yong zhu said.
"In the first half of this year, residents of pork consumption is influenced by factors such as macroeconomic growth is slowing and hasten. Pig supplies drop is larger. In the first half of 106.82 million head of fixed-point slaughtering slaughtering enterprises above designated size, down 10.0% year-on-year, for two consecutive month-on-month drop, for four months year-on-year declines by more than 14%." Zeng-yong zhu said.
In march of last year, pig industry sustained severe loss, leading to a large production, retail, as supply significantly reduced, it is inevitable that the restorative prices to rise.
In the year ahead is warmer
After August, can live pig market and numerous amount is expected to rise restorative, future annual pig breeding will be overall in good profits.
Although prices have been rising steadily in the first half of this year, Beijing xinfadi wholesale market of agricultural and sideline products statistics department manager liu to short-term market does not look good. "From the xinfadi market price trends in recent years, a year before the beginning of autumn, because people have the habit of 'stick to fall fat, pork price will be higher. After the beginning of autumn, meat prices fell instead."
Beijing xinfadi July 3 listing 1771.14 head on Sunday, more than 2 weeks of 1697.43 grew by 4.34%, increase the size of the obvious. "It shows that: although pigs have capacity decreased obviously, but fell after the capacity has not been significant shortage of supply."
Industry experts, although the recent market slightly bearish, but a year is more optimistic about the future.
"Pig industry profit good situation will continue until the second half of 2016." Zeng-yong zhu said. Look from pig supplies, the tight pig source in the short term is difficult to change. Although the live pig market driven, farmers to fill column enthusiasm increased, pig amount of began to increase, but to numerous sow amount of rapid decline in the second half of 2014, will influence the amount of live pig market after 12 months, tight supply and demand situation will continue until the second half of 2016.
Since April this year, pork prices continue to rise, farmers fill column enthusiasm high, especially in May, piglet sales increased significantly. According to the regular production of live pigs, piglets, sales in May to October market. May fill column the maturity of the gilt, its production of piglets in March 2016 at least to market. "Under normal circumstances, the third quarter of this year prices are expected to last rose slightly. In October after the hog prices there will be a shock, but not by much, getting better. In the second quarter of 2016, pigs are relatively reduced, prices are expected to continue to look good." Zeng-yong zhu said.
Last march, the pig food than below 5: "1" after the severe loss of cordon, local many pig farms fail, Hu Jizhen bought thousands of low middle pig head (35 kg - 60 kilograms). Original thinking when waiting for a good many back to the point of this, but worse and worse, up to 10 months, he had to sell all, lost and yuan per head. Recent market walk good, whether for expansion has sharply, Hu Jizhen and peers is still in doubt.
"After two pig market price fluctuations, farmers fill column is rational. In August this year, can live pig market and numerous amount of restorative increase is expected to continue, but prices will not rise sharply, the annual pig breeding will be overall in good profit." Zeng-yong zhu said.
The industry is still problems
Prices fell last round of last 3 years of bitter, ostensibly overcapacity, essentially because of the domestic backward in pig production, big but not strong
Generally speaking, the bigger the scale of farming, the lower the cost, but in fact, the domestic large-scale pig farms, production cost was significantly higher than that of small and medium-sized pig farmers. According to estimates, the current small and medium-sized farms as long as 5.7 yuan per kilogram white pig breeding cost, big farms are $6.8 or higher.
"High costs there are several reasons, such as, big pig feed on purchasing, all the little pig feed, can match the to agriculture and animal husbandry; large pig farm equipment depreciation, interest on loans, small pig farms almost no; large pig farms to employ many workers, the little pig is a family business." The Chinese academy of agricultural sciences researcher at the institute of agricultural economy and the development of ming-li wang said.
However, the main reason is that the domestic big pig is generally dependent on the manual feeding, low automation level.
"Ain't to do want to automation, is really can't afford to use." Hu Jizhen ever do market research, found that if automation transformation, ten thousand head of pig farms must be at least upfront investment of 14 million yuan. "Is not feed, management cost, the bank loan interest of the light is many times higher than artificial wages every year." Since using artificial than mechanical cost is much lower, it is with artificial production. Hu Jizhen employed 26 people, per capita monthly salary of 3000 yuan. "As long as no more than 7000 yuan monthly wages level, artificial than mechanical cost-effective."
The national bureau of statistics data show that the amount of 465.8274 million at the end of 2014 pigs in our country, the first in the world, and about 67.137 million, but the total number of pig farms under 99 head size proportion is as high as 50%. Pig amount of 66 million in the United States, while the second largest in the world, but the pig is only 71000, 5000 heads above accounted for 60%. U.S. pork producers smithfield foods company, annual amount of 15 million pigs, slaughtering 27 million a year, killing 80000 pigs a day on average. Scale, intensive greatly reduce the production cost, increasing its ability to resist risks.
Prices of last 3 years of bitter decline, on the surface because of excess production capacity, essentially because of the domestic backward in pig production, big but not strong.
Previously, due to domestic pig big big but not strong, every pig market, retail influx, lead to rapid overcapacity. Now prices soared, gainful, retail, sooner or later will be a large number of admission, industry prospects are grim.
Worrying is not only a large retail market blindly, and international the strong pressure of cheap pork. Over the years, because of low productivity, domestic prices significantly higher than the international market for a long time. Domestic prices soared this year, the difference between inside and outside is more wide.
Customs data show that 1 to June this year, China's pork imports 319900 tons, up 7.6%; Pork imports 706500 tons, up 3.4% from a year earlier. In the international economic integration increasingly today, the international and domestic prices cannot long six to one. In response, the industry must have a sober understanding.
To prevent cheap domestic pork pork imports hit just warms up in the market, we must improve the level of the domestic pig industry automation, modern production as soon as possible. Countries can consider to establish a special fund, when large farming implement automation and modernization, to give discount loans.
Beijing xinfadi last week in July, according to data from the white pig market daily average of 1695 head, 4.30% less than 3 weeks, the market is nearly a month at least 1 week. "Has this kind of situation is mainly due to price is too high, has had an adverse effect on consumption. Pig prices rose too fast, beginning to squeeze of circulation profit. Because of concerns about customer churn, pork merchants dare not substantial increases. Beijing xinfadi merchants each sales last week 1 white pig (pig), average can only get 1 yuan more margin, some merchants even started to lose money." Liu said.
The domestic pig industry, although no sweet without sweat, away from the continued healthy and stable development of good times and distance.
